Can we afford for everyone to have Ozempic? Yep.

Ignore for a second the cost savings of getting everyone on GLP-1s (60% of people are overweight or obese or diabetic in the US).

Instead just consider if the hugely profitable business of Lilly and Novo could be just as profitable but deliver the drugs for $30/month instead of $1,000/month (they are already $250/month effectively when negotiated – e.g. in Europe or some US plans.)

Some math with some made up numbers sprinkled in for napkin purposes.

Baseline Scenario

• Current Adoption: 2% of US adults (~5.2M people)

• Price per Year: $10,000

• Manufacturer Margin: 90%

• Revenue: $52B

• Profit: $46.8B

We now calculate price points at 5%, 10%, 30%, and 50% adoption while keeping total profit constant at $46.8B.

Breakpoints for Equivalent Profit Levels

At 50% adoption, GLP-1 drugs could cost as low as $1,360 per year while maintaining current profits.

mpact of Cost Reductions

Higher production scales can reduce manufacturing costs, allowing even lower prices. If production costs fall from $1,000 to $500 per year, pricing could drop further:

If production costs shrink to $500 per person, a 50% adoption scenario could sustain the same profit at just $860 per year per patient.

Examples of Drug Cost Reductions Due to Scale

1. HIV Antiretrovirals (ARVs)

• Early price (~2000s): ~$10,000 per patient per year

• Later price (~2020s, generic competition & scale-up): ~$75 per year in low-income countries

• Key drivers: Global demand (PEPFAR, WHO programs), generic manufacturing, economies of scale

2. Statins (Lipitor, Crestor, etc.)

• Early price (~2000s, branded): ~$3,000/year

• Later price (post-generic competition, ~2020s): ~$50/year

• Key drivers: Patent expiration, mass production, generics driving cost down

3. PCSK9 Inhibitors (Cholesterol drugs, e.g., Repatha, Praluent)

• Early price (~2015, launch): ~$14,000/year

• Later price (~2020s): ~$5,850/year

• Key drivers: Competitive pricing, expanded manufacturing

4. Insulin

• Early price (~1990s-2000s): ~$5,000/year in the US

• Later price (~2023, capped generics): ~$500/year

• Key drivers: Policy pressure, biosimilars, efficiency in manufacturing

See? Doable.

And that’s not counting the impact of the 100+ similar drugs in pipeline that are not owned by Lilly/Novo.