Davos vs. Forecasters: primary and presidential

The “Davos Consensus” this year says Trump will win the US presidential election. Here’s what the best prediction market (Good Judgment Project at Penn, aka “Superforecasters”) says: Though the prediction’s forecast has been rising: The source. 40% is not a

Davos vs. Forecasters: primary and presidential

The “Davos Consensus” this year says Trump will win the US presidential election. Here’s what the best prediction market (Good Judgment Project at Penn, aka “Superforecasters”) says: Though the prediction’s forecast has been rising: The source. 40% is not a

2024: the other side and the Prediction Consensus

Once in a while I send around an outlook for the year ahead. Here it is, sent Dec 31 2023:: Greetings from the other side —  It feels like we all need it this year: the other side of New Year’s Eve.  Many of the folks I speak with were

2024: the other side and the Prediction Consensus

Once in a while I send around an outlook for the year ahead. Here it is, sent Dec 31 2023:: Greetings from the other side —  It feels like we all need it this year: the other side of New Year’s Eve.  Many of the folks I speak with were

Unsolved problems for AI, especially in health and bio

AI is moving so fast right now! Well that was a few months back. It felt like folks were discovering whole new amazing things daily. Remember that whole “tell AI to start a business for me and run it” thing?

Unsolved problems for AI, especially in health and bio

AI is moving so fast right now! Well that was a few months back. It felt like folks were discovering whole new amazing things daily. Remember that whole “tell AI to start a business for me and run it” thing?

Search for keywords vs. meanings, or “Is Google dead?”

One of the best GPT/AI search things is when you have no idea how to exactly describe something but the robot finds it. Doesn’t work in normal search. Here’s an awesome example. I was walking in Brooklyn once, some years

Search for keywords vs. meanings, or “Is Google dead?”

One of the best GPT/AI search things is when you have no idea how to exactly describe something but the robot finds it. Doesn’t work in normal search. Here’s an awesome example. I was walking in Brooklyn once, some years

Cleaning half your iCloud storage, all the Messages attachments

Pet peeve…Apple makes it hard to download all the images/videos you have in Messages. And it really matters because my iCloud Storage is dominated by them. You *could* set your Messages settings to delete anything older than 30 days or

Cleaning half your iCloud storage, all the Messages attachments

Pet peeve…Apple makes it hard to download all the images/videos you have in Messages. And it really matters because my iCloud Storage is dominated by them. You *could* set your Messages settings to delete anything older than 30 days or

Not being ambitious enough

Big famous companies are often criticized for being too ambitious when they hit the rocks. I’ve been there. Truly huge giants are often criticized for being too cautious – think Google looking so lame these days in the face of

Not being ambitious enough

Big famous companies are often criticized for being too ambitious when they hit the rocks. I’ve been there. Truly huge giants are often criticized for being too cautious – think Google looking so lame these days in the face of

RIP Good Times update

Back in August I was feeling optimistic – Berkshire was at 297. I thought we might see new overall highs in 6-12 months. BRK promptly fell in September. And it’s almost 6 months later today, 308.

RIP Good Times update

Back in August I was feeling optimistic – Berkshire was at 297. I thought we might see new overall highs in 6-12 months. BRK promptly fell in September. And it’s almost 6 months later today, 308.

30% discount tag png sticker

No conflict, no interest

The interest rate makes valuations swing, particularly for companies that have high growth rates on currently low earnings. Kind of obvious, but under-appreciated, I think, for startups. Here’s the way you can value the stock of Apple, based on the

30% discount tag png sticker

No conflict, no interest

The interest rate makes valuations swing, particularly for companies that have high growth rates on currently low earnings. Kind of obvious, but under-appreciated, I think, for startups. Here’s the way you can value the stock of Apple, based on the

Icahn on takeovers, as a way of understanding what Elon is doing at Twitter

From the famous 2009 edition of Robert Schiller’s class at Yale that they recorded and published, a guest appearance by Carl Icahn — https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/financial-markets-audio/id341651121?i=1000063752219 Hear the corporate raider playbook – fire the “nice guy” CEO, slash headcount massively as most

Icahn on takeovers, as a way of understanding what Elon is doing at Twitter

From the famous 2009 edition of Robert Schiller’s class at Yale that they recorded and published, a guest appearance by Carl Icahn — https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/financial-markets-audio/id341651121?i=1000063752219 Hear the corporate raider playbook – fire the “nice guy” CEO, slash headcount massively as most