Davos vs. Forecasters: primary and presidential

The “Davos Consensus” this year says Trump will win the US presidential election.

Here’s what the best prediction market (Good Judgment Project at Penn, aka “Superforecasters”) says:

Though the prediction’s forecast has been rising:

The source.

40% is not a toss-up. Clearly the super forecasters think there are some obstacles ahead yet. Maybe in a straight up election head-to-head it would be a toss-up. But add the modest risks of the primary and the legal actions, perhaps that’s the dent in the current 60-40 Biden-Trump forecast.

And here’s another pretty cool one, a tossup:

Here’s that source, Metacalculus.

Easier to check, and sooner, is what happens on Tuesday in New Hampshire. Here’s the prediction – only 18% of forecasters predicting that Trump wins NH by >15%. That’s not a probability by the way, it’s how many predicted what. Chart: