The “Davos Consensus” this year says Trump will win the US presidential election.
Here’s what the best prediction market (Good Judgment Project at Penn, aka “Superforecasters”) says:
![](https://i0.wp.com/amol.sarva.co/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Screenshot-2024-01-21-at-6.29.57 PM.png?resize=710%2C159&ssl=1)
Though the prediction’s forecast has been rising:
![](https://i0.wp.com/amol.sarva.co/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Screenshot-2024-01-21-at-6.30.30 PM.png?resize=710%2C307&ssl=1)
40% is not a toss-up. Clearly the super forecasters think there are some obstacles ahead yet. Maybe in a straight up election head-to-head it would be a toss-up. But add the modest risks of the primary and the legal actions, perhaps that’s the dent in the current 60-40 Biden-Trump forecast.
And here’s another pretty cool one, a tossup:
![](https://i0.wp.com/amol.sarva.co/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Screenshot-2024-01-21-at-6.32.07 PM.png?resize=710%2C320&ssl=1)
Here’s that source, Metacalculus.
Easier to check, and sooner, is what happens on Tuesday in New Hampshire. Here’s the prediction – only 18% of forecasters predicting that Trump wins NH by >15%. That’s not a probability by the way, it’s how many predicted what. Chart:
![](https://i0.wp.com/amol.sarva.co/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Screenshot-2024-01-19-at-3.43.24 PM.png?resize=710%2C354&ssl=1)
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