Everything is fine…

TopicGood / Bad (since Jan 2025)Confidence
Inflation rate (CPI YoY)🟢 Slightly lower; gradual downward drift⭐⭐⭐⭐
Price level (cost of living)🔴 Higher (prices compound upward)⭐⭐⭐⭐
Unemployment rate🟢 Near multi-decade lows⭐⭐⭐⭐
Job growth pace🟡 Slower than prior expansion; still positive⭐⭐⭐
Trade deficit🔴 Still near all-time highs (top historical band)⭐⭐⭐
Immigrant population (total foreign-born)🔴 At or near all-time highs⭐⭐⭐⭐
National violent crime🟢 Continued gradual decline⭐⭐⭐⭐
Fentanyl deaths (synthetic opioids)🟢 ~10–15% lower vs 2024 (provisional trend)⭐⭐⭐
Federal budget deficit (annual)🔴 ~6–7% of GDP; roughly similar to or slightly higher than 2024 levels⭐⭐⭐⭐
National debt (gross federal)🔴 ~120%+ of GDP; slightly higher than 2024⭐⭐⭐⭐
% of population with health insurance🟡 Slight softening from 2023–24 peak coverage levels⭐⭐⭐
Child poverty rate🟡 Roughly flat vs 2024 levels⭐⭐⭐
Ukraine war🔴 Ongoing⭐⭐⭐⭐
Israel–Gaza security🔴 No durable resolution⭐⭐⭐⭐
Venezuela leadership🔴 Maduro power structure persists⭐⭐⭐
Cocaine trafficking flows🔴 No structural collapse in supply⭐⭐⭐

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