Very.
Using a top-down, Fermi-style estimation approach, here’s the result:
Total traffic hours saved worldwide (2010–2020): approximately 185.6 billion hours Total estimated economic value gained from these time savings: approximately $1.86 trillion USD
This assumes:
A global vehicle fleet of 1.5 billion vehicles, 300 driving hours per vehicle per year, Navigation app adoption rising from 10% to 90% over 10 years, An average of 7.5% time savings for users, And a global average value of time of $10/hour.
Scroll down for the stuff that sucks by comparison. But first the assumptions.
1. Global Number of Vehicles: ~1.5 Billion
Source: International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (OICA) and World Bank reports In 2020, the global number of registered vehicles was estimated at around 1.4 to 1.5 billion. Growth is driven primarily by developing nations, with saturation in high-income countries.
Reference:
2. Average Hours Driven per Vehicle per Year: ~300 Hours
Basis: In the U.S., average annual miles per vehicle is about 12,000 miles, at an average speed of ~35 mph → ~340 hours/year. In Europe and many OECD countries, the number is lower, ~10,000 km/year. In developing countries, usage is generally lower (fewer commutes, fuel costs, etc.).
So a global weighted average of ~300 hours/year per vehicle is a reasonable conservative estimate.
3. App Adoption: 10% (2010) to 90% (2020)
Basis: Google Maps launched turn-by-turn navigation in 2009–2010. Waze, acquired by Google in 2013, accelerated user adoption of crowdsourced routing. By the late 2010s, smartphones had 70–90% penetration in developed markets. In developing countries, adoption lagged but grew significantly due to Android.
References:
Statista: Smartphone adoption worldwide Pew Research: Mobile Technology Use
4. Time Savings from Apps: ~7.5%
Basis: Field studies suggest 5–10% reductions in average travel time from GPS-based routing. Smart routing helps users avoid peak congestion, accidents, and construction delays. A study in Pittsburgh found adaptive signal control reduced travel time by 25%; routing apps likely deliver a more modest but widespread improvement.
References:
ASCE 2021: Impact of Real-Time Traffic Apps Pittsburgh SURTRAC Project
5. Value of Time: $10/hour Global Average
Basis: OECD and World Bank estimates of “value of statistical life” (VSL) and time use often cite: ~$15–$30/hr in high-income countries ~$2–$5/hr in lower-income countries A global weighted average of ~$10/hour is defensible for private time savings.
References:
World Bank: The Value of Time in Economic Evaluation OECD: Cost-Benefit Analysis and the Value of Time
Stuff that sucks—
Many popular consumer inventions offer high subjective enjoyment or convenience but relatively low economic productivity gains. Here are a few inventions or products people love that generally create less economic value per hour used than things like traffic apps:
1. Social Media Platforms (e.g., Instagram, TikTok, Facebook)
Enjoyment: Very high — billions of users. Economic Value: Low per hour — much time spent passively consuming content. Downside: Opportunity cost of attention/time, mental health concerns.
2. Streaming Services (e.g., Netflix, Disney+, YouTube for leisure)
Enjoyment: High entertainment value. Economic Value: Mostly leisure consumption — little productivity impact. Value-to-Cost Ratio: Excellent for consumers, but limited macroeconomic impact.
3. Video Games (especially mobile or casual games)
Usage: Hundreds of billions of hours spent globally. Economic Impact: Generates industry revenue but limited cross-sector productivity. Note: Competitive gaming and game development do add economic value — but far less per user-hour than infrastructure or navigation tech.
4. Voice Assistants (e.g., Alexa, Siri)
Convenience: Popular for music, timers, and light control. Economic Gain: Marginal productivity boost — few significant time savings versus manual use.
5. Smart Home Devices (e.g., smart lights, fridges, vacuums)
Perceived Innovation: High. Actual Impact: Often marginal time savings or novelty with low return on cost.
6. VR Headsets (e.g., Oculus/Meta Quest)
Innovation: Technically impressive and loved by users. Economic ROI: Very low so far — adoption and productivity use cases remain niche.
7. E-Scooters / Micro-Mobility Apps
Love Factor: Fun, trendy in urban areas. Net Impact: Questionable — can substitute walking or transit, and often require city subsidies or cleanup.
