TESLA AT ~300X P/E — HISTORICAL CONTEXT WITH AMAZON, APPLE, MSFT, NVIDIA
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AMAZON (AMZN)
Peak valuation moment:
Peak P/E (TTM): approximately 563x Dec 2015 quarter: P/E 563.23 with price $33.79, EPS $0.06 (cite: turn14search0) Approx market cap then: about $320B (2015 year-end) (cite: turn6search16) Net income in 2015: $0.59B (cite: turn8search3, turn8search10)
So the market was paying roughly 540–560x earnings on a sub-$1B profit base.
Subsequent earnings growth:
Net income 2015: $0.59B Net income 2020: $21.3B (cite: turn8search10) 5-year net income CAGR (2015→2020): about 105% per year
This is extraordinary compounding: earnings increased roughly 36x in five years.
Takeaway: At its craziest P/E, Amazon ultimately grew into a significant portion of the valuation — helped by an extremely tiny starting earnings base. The absolute dollar increase was huge: from $0.6B to more than $21B.
APPLE (AAPL)
Apple never traded anywhere near Tesla’s ~300x P/E. Its high is modest by comparison.
Peak valuation moment (recent decade):
Peak P/E (TTM, last 10 years): about 40x Dec 2024 quarter: P/E 40.44, price $255.59, EPS $6.32 (cite: turn3search7) Net income FY 2024: $93.736B (cite: turn12search0, turn12search3, turn12search6) Approx market cap at that time: around $3T (rising toward $4T by 2025) (cite: turn13search23, turn13search4)
So this is about 40x earnings on roughly $94B of profit.
Subsequent earnings growth (so far):
Net income 2024: $93.736B Net income 2025: $112.01B (cite: turn12search0, turn12search3, turn12search6) 1-year growth from 2024→2025: about 19.5% (Macrotrends cites this)
Takeaway: Apple’s “high” P/E is not remotely Tesla territory, and it rests on enormous earnings.
MICROSOFT (MSFT)
Peak valuation moment (recent decade):
Peak P/E (TTM, last 10 years): about 48x Dec 2017 quarter: P/E 48.06, price $85.54, EPS $1.78 (cite: turn3search12) Net income FY 2017: $21.2B (cite: turn9search10) Market cap at end 2017: around $600B (statmuse range about $605–610B) (cite: turn6search10, turn6search2)
So roughly 48x earnings on more than $20B of profit.
Subsequent earnings growth:
Net income 2017: $21.2B Net income 2022: $72.7B (cite: turn9search10) 5-year net income CAGR (2017→2022): about 28% per year
Takeaway: Paying roughly 50x for Microsoft at the moment cloud inflected worked very well, with substantial earnings expansion on a large base.
NVIDIA (NVDA)
Closest analogue to an “insane multiple that later proves sane,” thanks to the AI boom.
Peak valuation moment (recent decade):
Peak P/E (TTM, last decade): about 139x Apr 2023 quarter: P/E 138.75, price $27.75 (post-split), EPS $0.20 (cite: turn10search0, turn10search9) Net income FY 2023: $4.368B (cite: turn11search10, turn11search4) Market cap around mid-2023: just under $1T (Nvidia crossed the trillion mark that year) (cite: turn13search21)
So roughly 140x earnings on about $4–5B of profit ahead of the AI explosion.
Subsequent earnings growth:
Net income 2023: $4.37B Net income 2024: $29.76B Net income 2025: $72.88B (cite: turn11search10, turn11search4)
2-year net income CAGR (2023→2025): about 308% per year
Takeaway: High P/E was justified only because earnings detonated upward even faster.
TESLA TODAY IN CONTEXT
Tesla’s current P/E (~300x) is being placed on tens of billions of earnings. Historically:
Amazon hit 560x but on less than $1B of earnings. Nvidia hit ~140x but on ~$4B of earnings. Microsoft and Apple have peaked around 40–50x on $20–100B+ of earnings.
The pattern:
Extreme P/Es only “work” when the earnings base is tiny and explodes afterward (Amazon, Nvidia). Mature megacaps with huge profits may justify 40–50x P/E when they post consistent double-digit earnings compounding (Apple, Microsoft). Tesla at 300x on a large earnings base requires Amazon- or Nvidia-level CAGRs on enormous profit dollars. That implies turning maybe $20B of earnings into something like $500B+ within a decade. It is mathematically possible but economically extraordinary.
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