What happens after a market rout, sometimes, eg 2020, 2008, 2000-1, but not 2022, 2019, 2015, 1987

Sometimes it’s just a flash crash. Other times it’s a crash crash. And in those case here are things that happen (keep an eye out):

Busted deals

  • IPOs pulled – eg Klarna
  • M&A canceled – Q1 was a record high
  • Equity and debt financings shelved
  • New investments iced – factories
  • Products canceled – eg Nintendo Switch 2

Cash preservation 

  • Tax revenue falls
  • Opex budgets cut – layoffs, hiring freezes
  • Banks don’t lend or refi – shore up their lending portfolio because they expect failures 

Blowups

  • Failed refinancings = bankruptcy 
  • Failed fundraises = bankruptcy
  • Margin calls on leveraged portfolios = fund blowups
  • Banks get merged

If it’s a real recession that follows (it would given the above), then you get some “silver linings”

  • interest rate cuts
  • re-flood to stock markets

And you get some more problems

  • incumbents raise first and best, getting stronger
  • regulators come to fix the systemic risks uncovered “this time”
  • elections swing 
  • unemployment and general popular misery

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_market_crashes_and_bear_markets

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