Summary of the Facebook bear case

1. This is the peak of Facebook’s powers. They are IPOing so “late” that we are no 5x or 10x room to run (like Google’s $85 IPO now >$600).

2. Mobile First is happening. Facebook ruled the web. It won’t rule mobile. E.g., this from Rushkoff

3. The display ad model won’t work. They haven’t found a real business model still. E.g., Dixon and the “GM pulls their ads” thing.

4. Frenzy means somebody is getting suckered. E.g., Blodget re: muppets.

5. Profit margins getting worse, revenue growth slowing. (Apple’s revenue is growing faster…)