McKinsey Global Institute did some epic work on what the future holds for work and automation.
1. MONSTER headline: due to aging, there will be a huge labor shortage in America, China, Japan, everywhere. Our countries will be shrinking GDP by 2070 without a massive solution. (And aging, due to technology, is likely to accelerate massively. A smaller population, but super old…)
2. Virtually all jobs will be a little automated “away” but the physical jobs are hosed. Thinkers and People-Persons are mostly fine.
3. India and China better be WORRIED. They are by far more vulnerable than US. Perhaps they will chase the Cognitive sector faster for this reason.
4. Automation is like an Oil Gusher. It will make the countries that automate fastest super rich. There will be sovereign wealth from its adoption. Is it privately owned or is it a national treasure?
5. Structure
– Cognitive > Manual
– Social > Analytical
– Judgment > Informational
– Non-Routine > Routine
+ More of everything
+ New platforms = New Builders, Drivers, Repairers, Installers
Worth browsing more of it here:
www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/digital-disruption/harnessing-automation-for-a-future-that-works