Category Archives: Posts
ALWAYS REAL: Ship while you sleep
The 2014 classic on how to make startups. Still 100% true. It often gets mentioned (to me anyway) when founders are comparing notes on how to get moving. If you are one of those founders who posted about this brief
ALWAYS REAL: Ship while you sleep
The 2014 classic on how to make startups. Still 100% true. It often gets mentioned (to me anyway) when founders are comparing notes on how to get moving. If you are one of those founders who posted about this brief
Davos vs. Forecasters: primary and presidential
The “Davos Consensus” this year says Trump will win the US presidential election. Here’s what the best prediction market (Good Judgment Project at Penn, aka “Superforecasters”) says: Though the prediction’s forecast has been rising: The source. 40% is not a
Davos vs. Forecasters: primary and presidential
The “Davos Consensus” this year says Trump will win the US presidential election. Here’s what the best prediction market (Good Judgment Project at Penn, aka “Superforecasters”) says: Though the prediction’s forecast has been rising: The source. 40% is not a
2024: the other side and the Prediction Consensus
Once in a while I send around an outlook for the year ahead. Here it is, sent Dec 31 2023:: Greetings from the other side — It feels like we all need it this year: the other side of New Year’s Eve. Many of the folks I speak with were
2024: the other side and the Prediction Consensus
Once in a while I send around an outlook for the year ahead. Here it is, sent Dec 31 2023:: Greetings from the other side — It feels like we all need it this year: the other side of New Year’s Eve. Many of the folks I speak with were
Unsolved problems for AI, especially in health and bio
AI is moving so fast right now! Well that was a few months back. It felt like folks were discovering whole new amazing things daily. Remember that whole “tell AI to start a business for me and run it” thing?
Unsolved problems for AI, especially in health and bio
AI is moving so fast right now! Well that was a few months back. It felt like folks were discovering whole new amazing things daily. Remember that whole “tell AI to start a business for me and run it” thing?
Search for keywords vs. meanings, or “Is Google dead?”
One of the best GPT/AI search things is when you have no idea how to exactly describe something but the robot finds it. Doesn’t work in normal search. Here’s an awesome example. I was walking in Brooklyn once, some years
Search for keywords vs. meanings, or “Is Google dead?”
One of the best GPT/AI search things is when you have no idea how to exactly describe something but the robot finds it. Doesn’t work in normal search. Here’s an awesome example. I was walking in Brooklyn once, some years
Cleaning half your iCloud storage, all the Messages attachments
Pet peeve…Apple makes it hard to download all the images/videos you have in Messages. And it really matters because my iCloud Storage is dominated by them. You *could* set your Messages settings to delete anything older than 30 days or
Cleaning half your iCloud storage, all the Messages attachments
Pet peeve…Apple makes it hard to download all the images/videos you have in Messages. And it really matters because my iCloud Storage is dominated by them. You *could* set your Messages settings to delete anything older than 30 days or
Not being ambitious enough
Big famous companies are often criticized for being too ambitious when they hit the rocks. I’ve been there. Truly huge giants are often criticized for being too cautious – think Google looking so lame these days in the face of
Not being ambitious enough
Big famous companies are often criticized for being too ambitious when they hit the rocks. I’ve been there. Truly huge giants are often criticized for being too cautious – think Google looking so lame these days in the face of
RIP Good Times update
Back in August I was feeling optimistic – Berkshire was at 297. I thought we might see new overall highs in 6-12 months. BRK promptly fell in September. And it’s almost 6 months later today, 308.
RIP Good Times update
Back in August I was feeling optimistic – Berkshire was at 297. I thought we might see new overall highs in 6-12 months. BRK promptly fell in September. And it’s almost 6 months later today, 308.
No conflict, no interest
The interest rate makes valuations swing, particularly for companies that have high growth rates on currently low earnings. Kind of obvious, but under-appreciated, I think, for startups. Here’s the way you can value the stock of Apple, based on the
No conflict, no interest
The interest rate makes valuations swing, particularly for companies that have high growth rates on currently low earnings. Kind of obvious, but under-appreciated, I think, for startups. Here’s the way you can value the stock of Apple, based on the
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