Sentiment: the door is closing

Dinner with a European investor had a few scary moments yesterday.

“Soundcloud and Spotify are 50-50 to go bankrupt in the next 12 month”

“The IPOs are all down.” Eg Rocket is down 60%.

“The Tier 2 venture firms are having trouble raising.” When was the last $1bn find you heard about?

“Interest rates will pressure governments and corporates.” Their debt payments are about to get budget-busting.

“A deal with 30% monthly revenue growth is no longer attention-getting. People are waiting.”

“The gulf sovereigns have been propping up the private market, but now low oil prices have them calling back $Bs in capital.”

“Volkswagen liabilities could be 50% of its market cap.”

“Currency weakening globally vs the dollar will make every non-US country and company’s debts rise faster.”